Actually, I should specify that they are Republican primaries, especially looking at the candidates.
Well, I reread some of my posts, and decided that that ship had sailed anyway, and that (being European) it was simply too tempting to throw a few questions and thoughts out there.
First question... (insert drumroll)
What the F*ck?
Why are 7 people (currently, not counting earlier dropouts) wasting millions of dollars (private money, quite a bit of it their own aswell!) on an attempt to become US president, which most right minded people could have told them from the start was a complete waste of time?
I mean, lets have a look at the field, ok?
He won in Iowa, although not nearly as overwhelmingly as he probably would have liked.
He is the GOP moderate (relatively that is. Don't forget that from a European perspective, all these guys resemble rabid pitbulls more than respectable politicians. But than again, perhaps the "over-compromising-lets-debate-and-water-everything-down-till-its worthless-anyway" European politics could do with a little more pitbull right now. Its just a perspective ;-) ) who has been working on this for more than 5 years now. His policies seem mainly pragmatic / opportunistic. no real sharp edges or stuff anyone could hate (not much substance to it really). Definitely supported by just about the whole GOP leadership, and just as definitely bought lock, stock and barrel by industry / lobby groups.
This is the most likely candidate to win the GOP nomination overall.
Ehhhmmm... Why not immediately put the US chamber of commerce up as candidate and skip the middleman?
Anyway, he's from a rich and successful background, his dad was governor of Michigan and he's overall not stupid. However the republicans on the ground just don't like him. Not conservative enough, too Mormon and too fickle. Getting this man to beat Obama without enthusiastic support from the republican constituency (going flyering, donating money, supporting their candidate publicly and actually turning out to vote in great numbers) will be tough. Very very tough...
Next, the Iowa caucus number 2, Rick Santorum.
Social conservative, worked his way up the ranks. He has little to no campain organisation outside of Iowa, very meager funding and is not strongly endorsed outside of Iowa.
Apart from this, he plans to bomb Iran as soon as they fart in his general direction (which makes him a little scary for moderate voters), seems significantly less interested in cutting government down to size (which basically makes him unelectable for the right wing republicans) and makes statements like "I dont want to make Black peoples lives better by giving them other peoples money" (Ref), which should make him reasonably unpopular with coloured voters. (btw, most welfare dollars go to white people, not black) (Ref). He also is a confirmed homophobe who (in response to comparing homosexuality to incest, animalism, adultery and so forth) has been pwned so hard he's probably still bubbling with anger.
Who exactly does Mr. Santorum think is going to vote for him, and how does he think this will tally up enough votes to get him nominated, let alone elected?
Opposes abortion and same-sex marriage, wants to lower taxes for the rich and businesses (flat 20% for everyone), Christian and has a good track-record as governor.
But...
He's not a great debater... He mixed up Irak and Iran once and couldnt remember which 3 government departments he wanted to abolish.
He's a former Democrat (shiver...lol) and has a few blemishes on his reputation (Bilderberg connection, HPV shots made mandatory, soft on immigration).
Not the ideal GOP candidate (doesnt toe the party line enough) and if he gets nominated also not the ideal presidential candidate (too conservatively republican).
He is currently re-evaluating his candidacy after a poor showing in Iowa.
Long term political career, including governor of Utah, ambassador to China, he even served in the Reagan administration as white house staff assistant. Comes from a very wealthy family and has run the family business for a while too.
This guy has smarts, cash, good advice and a sound pedigree. He is a moderate, a pragmatist, generally a good guy and (probably my favourite part) he has his 3 lovely daughters releasing videos (1) (2) in his support. Great family values right there!! and, no offence intended, but the singing is pretty awful in that second video. Girls, keep that for the shower...)
But... He has so far stayed soooooo far behind in all the polls. He doesnt really seem to be putting on a real campaign. No showing in Iowa (and may I remind you that no US president has ever ended lower than third in Iowa) and not a clear reason why his popularity should now increase. It seems that the Huntsman millions (which they can easily afford btw) are being spent purely as a show.
Why does someone with this kind of experience not see tat his chances of being elected are close to zero? (and if he does, why doenst he pull out?)
Ok, so far the candidates which could be elected to US president. The next batch, even if elected to GOP nominee, are such extremists that they would not be able to beat any Democratic candidate, let alone an incumbent.
Ron Paul. 76 years old, libertarian guru, rabid racist (according to CNN) and he wants to legalise drugs. Not a chance in hell that this man will be supported by the majority of the US voters unless Obama screws up much much worse that he has so far.
This is his third bid, and even though his neo-anarchism goes down well with young voters, its doomed to fail. (Im sure Obama is secretly rooting for him to win the GOP primaries).
Newt Gingrich: Too dirty background. You know that when you get into this process, you entire background will be torn open and examined. How can the family oriented republican party nominate someone with his track record of faithlessness? Pile his admitted tax evasion history on top of that, and something smells decidedly rotten. Apart from that his voting record doesn't endear him to the right wing voters...
So, no funding, no constituency, no chance.
Finally, Michelle Bachmann. May I (being European) say that this one for us has again confirmed that US politics cannot be taken seriously. I mean how many silly mistakes can one make in a row?
I mean, John Wayne (Gacy!), Soviet Union on the rise, Terry Shiavo is Healty, etc etc. The list goes on and on. Not electable by any means.
Im not going into the even less likely candidates, it doesn't serve a purpose.
So, the next question rises (and Im aware I havent answered my first question, I dont think Im able to... if you have any ideas, please use the comment section).
Why do they believe they have a chance?
Beats me!
Mitt Romney
Ok, this one I can get. He's got the support of the entire party leadership, he's squeaky clean and a moderate. Can be nominated as GOP candidate and is electable as president. Probably Obama's biggest worry.
Rick Santorum
Eeehhhhmmmm... No idea. Does he really think that (almost) winning in Iowa would propel him to the forefront? Iowa doesnt Make candidates, it only Breaks them... After Iowa he'll have no funding, no constituency, no chance.
Rick Perry
Perhaps he envisioned himself as George W the second? The US is not ready for George W the second (at least I bloody well hope not). Seriously though, his trackrecord as governor should work for him and he might have counted on the Bush endorsement. Well, sorry, it went to the only serious candidate, dear ol' Mitt (to clarify, that was the endorsement of Bush senior Mr. W hasn't endorsed yet, he'll rubberstamp whoever ends up on top.). He's pretty much unloved by both the right and the left. And recently it seems that the US doesn't have a centre left any more.
Jon Huntsman
Simple case of no support from the right, so no GOP nomination. I cant see how in this political climate he could have missed that. Pile the so far disastrous campaign on top (missing quite a few debates, no show in Iowa), and the whole affair can hardly be taken seriously.
Ron Paul
Plenty of support from the right! Did he think that alone would be enough? That the Americans really collectively would want his brand of libertarianism? And therefore give up their favourite hobby, international "peacemaking"? Not likely to fly, although I can see him getting the GOP nomination (not the most likely one, but not impossible. Btw, this says a lot about the GOP today. Last time he joined, he was (rightfully) considered an extremist nutjob without a chance in hell. That he is taken seriously this time is in itself extremely worrying). Elected to president? not a chance.
Newt Gingrich
Not conservative enough to be elected GOP candidate without massive party support (which of course all went to Romney), and his history just makes him too vulnerable to attacks, so not a chance in hell to be nominated.
Michelle Bachmann
hahahahahaaaaaaa...... Seriously though, did she really think she could win? Lady, pick up a book once in a while first! Jeeesh, the depressingly low level of intellect she displays is shocking even after the Bush era.
So, that leads me to my last question of today, where are all the serious GOP candidates?
The republican party bigshots seem to have decided to give 2012 a miss.
No Christy, Daniels, Pawlenty or Thune. These are the most mentioned "missing names" I believe.
The consensus on several sites is that they either consider Obama too strong to defeat in 2012, or they consider the problems too big for a Republican president to get burnt on (maybe better to let Obama struggle for 4 more years first).
Im not sure. I think there might be something else going on as well as these two factors. I believe that the current situation is indeed quite dire, but its going to improve in the next 4 years. The economy will pick up, unemployment will decrease, China is headed for internal trouble (the middle class wants a piece of the pie by now, thats going to gnaw at the foundations of the current Chinese system) and the middle east situation is (arguably) heading for better times. Why would the GOP let a Democrat take the credit?
And about Obama being unassailable? I dont believe that for a minute! right now there is plenty of ammo to shoot at him. True, he is not hated, but neither is he loved. A decent spindoctor should be able to make him look like the devil himself in 10 months time.
I do believe that the relative strength of Obama contributes, it dont think its enough to explain the current situation.
So what than?
Two options:
1) The republican party is purging itself. The tea party has become too powerful and is holding the rest of the GOP hostage. Look at all the partisan lockups, stalemates and watered down, ineffective decisions made over the last years. Perhaps they are letting the tea party break some of its most annoying teeth by asking the electorate, the republican voters on the ground, to give a direction. Romney (the only really serious candidate who enjoys the support of the party leadership after all) is likely to win that, empowering the moderates in the party enough to be able to successfully govern without the current extreme partisanship. Romney is also one of the best candidates to take on Obama, so it could be a double whammy, after which the GOP can take the morale high ground and look for those compromises that are currently not to be found.
2) Looking at the current, enormous the support for extremists, having multiple serious candidates out there simply makes the chance that the moderate vote is diluted so far that an extremist wins too great. It could be that instead of having several serious politicians damage each other in this rightwing charged primary is perceived as too costly for the GOP, so the leadership has decided to concentrate it all on Romney.
Maybe a bit of both?
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