Europe's crisis analysed

A very clear analysis from the Wall Street Journal, looking at the backgrounds - and more importantly, the unfolding - of the Euro crisis from 2008 through 2011.
Take 23 minutes to listen to experts explain what happened and what went wrong in Charles Forelle's documentary.

Im not sure I agree with the final conclusions about Europe needing to adopt a more US style free market economy, but overall the film is valid and enlightening.

democracy 2

saw quite an interesting article on the BBC website today, which addresses some of  the issues I discussed yesterday. Dont let the title fool you, its more balanced than it seems.

Heart of the matter is that the primary elections currently ongoing in the US seems to select for the more extreme candidates (if you're not a republican puritan, all the PR power I mentioned before will be turned against you from multiple candidates). That means that the splinter groups at the extreme edges of the US political spectrum are overrated, which might go a long way towards explaining the frequent partisan lockups of government we've been seeing.

California (and a few others) have tried to change this, by allowing ALL registered voters to vote in the primaries (proposition 14 (California, 2010) and initiative 872 (Washington, 2004)). So both Democrates and Republicans get to vote for their favorite candidate, no matter from which party they are. This way the centrists would have an advantage (after all, a democrat will dislike a teaparty candidate more than a centrist, who will therefore pick up the vote of some centrist democratic voters and vice versa), paving the way for a less divisive political environment. The swing voters would enhance this effect dramatically, and the chance for independent candidates would be substantially greater. This sounds great to me! More sane politicians, with less party luggage leads to more pragmatic politics.
So far the bill seems to surviving the legal attacks levelled against it from both parties. Lets see how it holds.


A few of the comments left under the BBC article I started with:

18.
pun_gent 
2ND JANUARY 2012 - 22:26
The NYT nailed this issue by pointing out that a requirement for ideological purity has narrowed the field to those who are either clueless enough to believe the dogma, or those cynical enough to claim they do despite knowing better. 


17.
 Dan S 
2ND JANUARY 2012 - 22:18
The media is anointing the candidates based on their entertainment value rather than their policies.


10.
 Theowyn 
2ND JANUARY 2012 - 21:19
The evangelicals have hijacked the GOP. XXXX XXXXXXXX and his ilk have driven all moderation and reason from the party's discourse.


5.
 Nineva 
2ND JANUARY 2012 - 20:51
I live in the US Midwest, not far from Iowa. This country's politics lacks common sense. People vote against their interests, they're more influenced by ideologies rather than reasoning. US journalists rarely help either, as the reality-show mentality demands reporting outlandish claims as facts.


19.
 Meg 
2ND JANUARY 2012 - 22:29
Unfortunately I am actively embarrassed by the way our election process is "working" this time around. We can't afford to vote for anyone based on their entertainment value, but since the majority seems to be focused on immediate gratification & self-righteousness, it looks like the biggest 'star' will get the job - regardless of their policies or lack of common sense.


66.
 g02 
6 HOURS AGO
this is what a country, even the wealthiest, begins to look like when its educational system declines sharply and access is limited. Fundamentalists & morons thrive in ignorance. Don't give them a cess pool in which to breed, because they will - like wildfire.


Source:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16386176

Democracy's dilemma

Democracy... It seems the hope of the free world, if Im to believe the media.
But there are a few messy side effects too. Im not saying btw that democracy is bad, but Id like to take a little time to muse about certain drawbacks of our current system of democracy.

First of all, everyone is equal in democracy.

"Well", you might say, "thats good, isnt it? No discrimination, no system that places any individuals opinion above any others, sounds great to me! After all, we're all equally valuable as individuals"

And up to a certain point, you'd be right.

However...

What makes us believe that all opinions are equal? Lets examine the following situation: I have some physical problem, lets say very frequent stomach aches. A good friend of mine (not a medic) might say "sounds like you got an ulcer.", while a doctor might conclude that Im under too much stress.
Would I consider each opinion to be equal? Or would I believe one more than the other?

The point here is that opinions are only as good as the information behind them. The opinion of someone who has a lot of knowledge about the topic under discussion will likely be more valuable than the opinion of someone who has very little.

However, in a political election everyone's opinion is equal, no matter whether they are subject matter experts or not. This creates a situation where the majority of uninformed votes will overshadow the well informed votes.  Compare this to going to a hospital to find out what's wrong with you, and instead of the doctor being able to calmly tell you his/her diagnosis, you'll both be standing in the hallway with all the other patients and visitors, while everyone is yelling their opinion. Would you be satisfied in such a case?

So point one is to separate basic rights from use. Everyone has the right to voice their opinion, but not everyone's opinion is equally useful (mainly due to a difference in knowledge).

Well, than the solution is easy! Inform the masses!!!
Arrrr....That has a few problems of its own....

Looking at the US primaries going on, the Egyptian election, the current political situation in Holland all leads me to the same conclusion.
A lot of people are easily convinced by soundbites (statements which sound good, but lack actual factual meaning or underpinning), and can therefore be exploited. Media attention, saying the thing people want to hear, spreading false accusations (take Obama's birth certificate for example. I dont think many people really believe that he's not borne in America, but the soundbite is still exploited by his opponents), simplifying things to the level that they mean something different entirely, and many other kinds of manipulation are fired at us on an almost hourly basis.
Modern elections will be won by the person who can convince most people that his or her spin on the truth is the best one. And if the majority of voters are virtually blank slates (when it comes to factual knowledge about complex political issues), its easy to pour them full of half-truths and exploit their vote.

In Holland there is a far right politician named Geert Wilders. He's really good at this trick. He's managed to convince the working population that voting for a party with close ties to trade unions and a historic track record of sticking up for the little man will be bad for them. Thats quite a feat! And did he use any facts to back this up? Rarely. Most of it was rants against individual leftwing politicians, rants against "the left church" (one of his most successful soundbites btw) and tons of unsubstantiated accusations. Of all his election promises, none have been fulfilled so far, but funny enough no-one seems to care... This has been pointed out many times by politicians opposing him (including obviously the left wing politicians he rants against), but no-one seems to be interested in the fact that he is NOT actually doing anything to improve peoples lives. Strange, isnt it? Or is it the power of misinformation...

And the best part is, these kind of tricks can be learnt! Most people can easily be taught how to sway people based not on content, but purely on presentation. Take NLP for example. Its a skillset purely meant to teach one how to use non-verbal communication to manipulate other people. And there are many more skillsets like this out there, usually with a few courses attached so you can learn them if you want. Now remember that manipulation is just a tool. It isnt good or bad in itself, that is determined by the use people put it too. A knife isnt bad, stabbing someone is! and manipulating someone to do something which is good for them (quiting smoking, visiting a doctor when they are reluctant to) is hardly a bad thing.

Its important to realise that no-one is immune to this. Its basically hardwired into our brain, and most of the time its extremely for us useful to be able to pick up body language clues etc. How else would we be able to interact with each other as smoothly, rapidly and efficiently as we do. Only when people can actively choose to send false messages through this medium, it gets dangerous... And I believe that the less factual knowledge is involved (either in the content of whats being discussed or already present in the person who is forming an opinion), the more power these tricks have.

How much knowledge does one need to be relatively immune to this type of voter manipulation? A lot! I dont think there is anyone on the planet who is completely immune. Its a sliding scale, with those who are completely unaware being the easiest to influence, and those who already know a lot about the issues being debated being the hardest ones. But Id say (looking at voter behaviour, at peoples reaction to for instance global warming or the Irak war and at how easily Im still swayed by good sounding oneliners if im not careful) that the vast majority of voters is close to the easy end of the scale (no insult intended, different people simply have different talents / skills, and most people dont have the talent, patience or will to acquire in-depth knowledge about the facts underlying the big issues).

Thats an important fact though. It means that if everyone's vote is equal, its easy to manipulate the majority of the population and this is a trick anyone can learn, we're basically voting the smoothest operator into office instead of the one who will defend our interests best.

Wow, thats scary!!

If I had a daughter I wouldnt be too happy if she's going out with the smoothest operator in class, purely because he knows how to manipulate her opinions! Than why would I want such a person to be running my government?

How about the genuine good guys? How about those wise men and woman, those clever, well-informed people who would be the "best person for the job", because they know all the facts and all the issues? Ha, thats one on the scariest parts... One of the first things the "soundbite politicians" did, was create an atmosphere in which its actually considered BAD to be too factual! Its not sexy, so the masses dont want to listen or vote for you. Bush actively pretended to be dumber than he actually is, so people would trust him more. Thats ridiculous!!

But... But... I thought we were trying to select the best people to lead our countries, not having a popularity contest! I dont care if (s)he's ugly or stutters. If (s)he knows how to fix our economy, fix the hurts of the nation, and maybe even of the world (in that order), and bring prosperity and peace to the nation, I like!

So back to the start: Whats wrong with Democracy today?

A population of MTV-lings who want to be entertained rather than educated have the majority vote.
They are being grossly manipulated by a rich elite (funny isnt it, the top 1% of the American rich had a 27% salary raise in 2011. I wonder how that could have happened?!), who can afford to pay the PR teams that win elections, and therefore own the politicians (and therefore make the rules).
This leaves real power in the hands of a greedy few, while everyone else is scratching their ears, wondering why the world is in such a state.

Democracy?? Is is mob rule? Or perhaps a new form of serfdom...



Dear readers.
Id love to hear what you think about this and other posts on my site. Please leave a comment below if you agree or disagree, want to comment on my style, or just want to leave a "Mr. X was here ;-)

strange times

Hmmm... 2011... What a year. Not sure what to think of it actually.

Perhaps a year with more potential than most. Dictators have fallen, EU treaties have been (finally) overhauled (well... the intention has been agreed upon), a Republican centrist is in the lead in the US primaries, Russia is starting to have an Opposition voice, and in countries like Myanmar a careful start of progress may be detected.

There was even a moment where movement towards a new Kyoto treaty might have been possible. But so little result...
Every step forward has hollowed out by national protectionism, political opportunism and partisanship.

 "Better to let the whole world go to hell on a fast train than to take the first step" seems to have been the motto at the climate talks.
What do these so-called leaders think? That ignoring it is going to make this problem go away? No boys and girls, the bill is simply growing, and going to be paid by the next generations (Like the national debt bill, the reduced pensions bill, and all the other bill which have grown beyond control because there were simply no leaders courageous enough to nip these issues in the bud when they could). You all know that, so get your heads out of your asses and make those unavoidable decisions!

The next leaders of some Arab countries (where the population has fought long and hard for their freedom) seem intent on becoming as bad as the rulers they have just replaced (see Egypt), while the established leaders of the Arab world have sent the architect of the Darfur genocide to lead the Syria "observer" mission. Come on, talk about no form of credibility!!!

In the US we have people supporting potential president candidates who make such stupid comments that they make Bush look smart (quite a feat in itself). Bachmann, Perry, Paul, and the other extreme right wingers all seem to me too stupid, uneducated and frankly too dangerous to let anywhere near a position of power.
Not saying that Obama is doing a good job btw, but at least he's an incompetent with good intentions. The GOP batch seems to have been selected from a mental institution!
Seriously, the John Wayne affair by Bachmann revealed a level of stupidity that beggars belief, and the others are only fractionally better. One of these people is likely to end up with his / her hand on the nuke button. Im not sure if I find that less scary that Ayatollah Khamenei having nukes...

 The EU meanwhile blunders from one "final Euro solution" (pun intended) to the next. Here as well a distinct lack of leadership and a huge overdose of nationalism is painfully apparent. What do these so-called leaders think? That if France gets back up onto its knees, it will all be ok? Doesnt for instance the German leadership realise that Germany has raked in a huge profit over the last 10 years thanks to the Euro, and that every day this crisis lasts is one more day in which Germany WONT rake in that huge bounty?
Come on, the EU is asking poorer Asian, African and South American countries to save them (through the IMF) while its own population can buy the entire debt overnight and make the problem go away. Credibility?? Far to be sought... (Btw, Belgium is doing exactly this, Japan has a similar system).
Create Eurobonds (sorry Angela, its also in the long run the best for Germany. The sooner the EU is financially healthy again, the sooner the German economy can go back to making a fortune off of the other EU countries), which will have an interest rate high enough to be interesting for private people to buy as an alternative to having a saving account. As a result of this, the interest paid by EU governments on these bonds flows back into the EU economy, where it can strengthen the EU economy. Now its only fortifying China's position...

 Its all so ridiculus...
The answers are known to everyone. Banks (and hedge funds, structured investment vehicles, and all the other dangerously powerful hypercapitalist institutions/companies) need to be more regulated so they cant hold the entire world economy hostage, the US tax system (amongst others) needs to be cleaned up and made much more fair (and while were at it, perhaps those multi million Dollar / Euro salaries can be cut down to less absurd levels. No-one deserves to earn that much money, its daylight robbery!), the stronger EU countries need to back up the weaker ones, while the citizens dare to invest in their own countries, and the UN should read its own charter again (its one for all, not each for his own interest).
The climate decisions need to be made NOW (not just CO2, think of realistic fishing quotas, pollution reduction, nuclear waste and responsible and durable stewardship of our planet) or the next set of figures will only be that much worse.

All these things seem so obvious.

A bit like reaching the conclusion that smoking is bad for you the day after you smoked two packs at a party. (Your lungs will tell you its bad. If you choose to ignore how you feel whilst you're coughing up a bucket of black mucus and claim that "you didnt know", you're simply lying to yourself!).
Why is it so difficult for a majority of the voting population to act like adults and face the problems we have? How can educated people state that "because there has never been a proven link between rising CO2 levels and global warming, we can ignore the environment".
Think about it, do you feel good with your head in a cloud of industrial smoke? Than that alone should be enough to encourage you to want to reduce pollution... nooooo, its easier to say that because there is a 1% doubt (eeehmm... less actually if you look at the scientific consensus. About 99.7% of the scientists in this field agree with climate change predictions), we can go on without worry... ARG!!!
 How can 15% of the US population support someone too stupid to realise that by questioning the HPV vaccine based on a smattering of wild stories (the doctors/pharma industry are intentionally poisoning the population!), she potentially endangers hundreds of thousands of woman who believe her, avoid the shot and have an elevated risk of ovarian cancer...
How can about half a nation (99% average Joe's in there btw) support trickle down economy, without realising that its the biggest hoax of the century. The rich have convinced the working class that limiting the extreme wealth gap by forcing the rich to contribute a little more to the public good will be bad for the working class...

Eeeehmmmm...
What?

Basically trickle down economy is Robin Hood stealing from the poor, giving to the rich, and convincing the poor that its in their interest. These billionaires have meanwhile themselves asked to be taxed more in the interest of the country for pete's sake (see http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/opinion/stop-coddling-the-super-rich.html)!

Is this all a joke? It seems too awful to be true.

Are people really so stupid they will let themselves and the next generations go to hell on a fast train, just because we find rationally thinking to be too much like hard work?

I cant believe what I read in the papers, and it seems to be getting worse every day.
Is there no small hopeful bit of news which wont turn sour the next day? Maybe these questions are the reason why so may people stop taking an interest and follow the nearest soundbyte, its easier than feeling this huge disappointment in my fellow humans all the time.
Ill still prefer to be aware (even of bad things) that to actively try to be ignorant. But maybe that makes me a naive idealist.
Any other naive idealists out there?
Anyone?

Can Gepet: looking for a house! (reward offered)

Or actually, looking for whoever owns it...
Can Gepet (also known as Cal Gepet or Cal Gepes, coordinates: 41° 20′ 44.13″ N, 1° 54′ 53.14″ E), a beautiful Masia (old Catalan Farmhouse) in the picturesque town of Begues (or Begues) near Barcelona now looks like this:

Back view:


Front view:



Now you might say its a little run down, I see huge potential in this magnificent place.
But...
I cant seem to find out who owns it!!

So, a call out to anyone who sees this:
if you know to who this place belongs, if you know someone who might know (or be able to find out), please leave a comment!
Any comment leading to contact with the owners (not necessarily a purchase) will be rewarded!

And if the Owners see this post, Im offering a substantial amount for the purchase of this property, please contact me!
thanks for your help.

Some extra links:
Can Gepet
Local Archaeology